Posted on by Terry White

Blu-ray! It’s now or never…

bdp360

Well another holiday shopping season is upon us and once again people will be upgrading their home entertainment setups. The question is will they be getting Blu-ray players this year or not? Before I go on, let me just say that I like Blu-ray as a format and I was rooting for it to win the format war. However, little progress has been made since that war ended.

 

When we went to DVD…

When we made the transition to DVD from VHS there were several advantages. You go an improved picture that was noticeable. You got a smaller more convenient format that could be put into a laptop and other small devices. You no longer had to rewind and the picture quality didn’t suffer degradation over time.  Once the players dropped below $100 (the magic number for most consumers), buying a DVD player was a no brainer. 

Let’s go back a little further

Remember the VHS vs. Beta war? VHS won out over a better quality format because of one simple thing – PRICE! Most would tell you that they preferred Sony’s Beta format for quality, yet VHS won because the players were cheaper. You would think Sony would remember that!

 

Isn’t Blu-ray better?

Yes, Blu-ray is better than standard def DVD. However, the differences aren’t as stark as they were when we went from VHS to DVD. The average consumer (these are the people that are needed for this format to succeed) can barely tell a difference. Especially now that most DVD players do a good job of upconverting the DVD quality on an HDTV. For those who would argue with me at this point, my guess is that you probably already have a Blu-ray player and you’re not the average consumer. That’s the problem. The people reading this that value picture quality, have home theaters, were the first on the block to get HD are the early adopters that already own one or more Blu-ray players. Now in order for the format to really take off, everyone else has to get on board. In order for that to happen, the price has to come down below that magic number! Yes, below $100. 

 

What happens if the price doesn’t come down below the magic number?

When we went from VHS to DVD, the transition took years before most people had DVD players. Manufacturers could enjoy high profits for a longer period of time because there was nothing else for the consumer to do. Eventually they would move away from VHS. So once everyone that was going to pay over $100 for a DVD player had one, then the price came down so that everyone else could get one. This time it’s different. It’s different because of one thing and that’s the internet! More and more people are going with digital downloads or streaming video. All the major players are jumping on board including iTunes, Netflix, Amazon, cable companies and now Blockbuster. Granted we don’t have full blown 1080p streaming in real-time yet, but I would dare say that it won’t take another full year before we see it. So if Blu-ray doesn’t take off this year it may never take off! My favorite Blu-ray player, the Sony BDP-S350 is still going for $199 with a list price of $299. That’s about what it was going for LAST YEAR! Sony has released a cheaper version, the BDP-S360. However, it has a list price of $199 and a street price of about $170. So these prices need to drop between $70-$99 like NOW! You also have to remember that the price of the Blu-ray movies are about 50% higher than the same movies on DVD (Star Trek 2009: $16.99 for the DVD, $24.99 for the Blu-ray+Digital Copy). 

 

Blu-ray, it’s now or never! 

If Blu-ray doesn’t go over big this year, it may simply be passed by! Technology isn’t sitting still this time.

15 Replies to “Blu-ray! It’s now or never…”

  1. Until Apple uses them, I won’t believe they are here for the long-term. I don’t think Apple will. Steve Jobs seems to be trying to move us all to the web for sharing video by barely supporting iDVD. Burning from iMovie to iDVD is not as high of quality as it used to be. I still prefer a method of physically burning to a disc for easy transport and playback in any standard DVD player (i.e. the grandparents can play without a computer).

    I think you are correct, if Sony doesn’t establish it this year, they will be passed over for the internet. I consider myself an early computer adaptor, but not necessarily with TV home media gadgets. I have HDTV, I don’t have a blu-ray player. I watch very few movies and either rent or download from iTunes. The price of blu-ray movies is what stops me from purchasing.

    1. If Julie is waiting for Apple to adopt Blu-ray, she will have a very long wait. Apple has had more than one opportunity to integrate a Blu-ray player into their product line but has refused to do so. The most popular theory, and the one that I subscribe to, is that Apple won’t do anything to detract from their iTunes business model. Everything they have done over the past couple of years is geared towards downloading of content from iTunes, including their push to rent and sell movies. They can’t remove the DVD player all together because too many people use it as a source of data storage but I don’t believe you will ever see a Blu-ray player/writer in a Mac.

  2. I really don’t believe the issue is the cost of the player because they have come down in price. To me the reason why Blu-ray is struggling at the moment is the cost of the disk. Why pay 30 bucks for a movie when you can buy the same disk on the next shelf down for 10 dollars? I do have a Blu-ray player but have been avoiding really going totally Blu-ray because the cost of the movies is not worth the difference in quality on the screen. Unitl they decide to bring down the cost of the movies, I don’t believe the public will convert.

  3. Unforunately Blu-Ray just doesn’t offer anything of value. Higher resolution doesn’t make poor moves great. I really don’t care if I can see sweat drops or hair strands. Blu-Rays are far more expensive. The interactive stuff is most times a short lived offering. There is even more copy protection not that that is a user problem but for me it is a moral one.

    I own a 56″ HD TV and I can say that DVD is just great. Blu-Ray just doesn’t offer anything I need. In fact I think the only reason it was developed is because Sony wanted something special for the PS3 and the industry wanted something with more protection. None does anything for the customer except of course jack up the prices.

    DVDs are barely work $19.95 let alone the price of blu-ray.

    Robert

  4. Terry, right on as usual! With flash coming on so strong and so cheap, who needs a player that has 200 moving parts (that can break down) and still isn’t in the right price range for the average movie viewer? As an owner of a video production company, I feel that my eyes are trained to “see” the differences in video quality, but in reality my eyes can’t tell the difference between watching Blu-Ray and a regular dvd that’s been up-converted. I can hear a big difference in sound, but that won’t mattter to most people. Two things, by this Christmas if the players don’t come down to $99 and if Blockbuster doesn’t start carrying more than 1 copy of each new movie in Blu-Ray then I think I can hear the “Fat Lady” warming up to sing.
    It’s going to be, and I quote form the movie Aliens. “Game Over Man!”

  5. Terry: Nice brief summation of the struggles of Blu-Ray and I agree wholeheartedly with all your key points. I was an early adopter of DVD in 1996 and welcomed it enthusiastically when it went mainstream in approx 1999 winning out over the failed Divx model being driven by Circuit City- http://tinyurl.com/yzqx4at -I have a HDTV and do not own a Blu-Ray player as I believe it has compelling reasons to switch and boy do I tell my friends who asked my opinion on this. The upconversion of the signal to 1080p makes most DVD’s that have been remastered for HDTV’s appear gorgeous on your screen. I have some Fox Studio restored DVD’s that look more impressive than some Blu-Ray DVDs on playback.
    Thanks again for this glimpse into fate of Blu-Ray…Sometimes I don’t Sony learns from their missteps..

  6. Corrections “no compelling reason to switch”
    “Sometimes I don’t think Sony learns….

  7. Agree with most of the comments – I’m another who didn’t care for the marginal benefit offered by Blu-Ray over an upconverting DVD player.
    Maybe it’s a symptom of the times. Why buy the latest camera/laptop/TV when there’s little improvement over the models from the past year (or three)? But eventually there’ll be a compelling reason to upgrade and break out the wallet.

  8. I have a Sony Blu Ray, I forget which one. It is a reconditioned unit that cost me $119 at the Sony store in Woodbury Commons Outlet. Here’s the deal.
    • One big element of the the picture quality depends on well they did the transfer. Some discs are very good, some are crap.
    • My Sony runs Linux. It is slow to boot. Slow to open, slow to respond.
    Before you purchase one, bring a DVD to the store and try it out. Do I like it? Yup, but then I did purchase a “Fat Mac” back in the day.
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  9. The quality difference between downloadable HD and Blu-ray is staggering. Blu-ray is incredibly better than downloadable formats. This is due to compression ratios, not due to technological differences. Once movies are able to be downloaded in H264 AND are of sufficient data rate (read: less compressed)… then there will be no real difference. Until then, Blu-ray is clearly the winner. In the long-run, Blu-ray will go the way of the dodo bird… but not until bandwidth is raised to a significant level and movies are released for download in the 40-50GB size range.

  10. Two reasons I refuse to buy blu. You nailed it that one is price, both of the player and the DVD’s. Until you can buy a big assortment of Blu Ray movies in the $10-$15 range, why bother.

    The second reason is copy protection, or too much of it. Most of the movies we do buy are for our kids, as there the only ones that watch a movie the several times needed to justify the purchase. Our handicapped son destroys DVD’s like candy. Some have made it less than a day. We now have a really nice movie server every movie gets ripped to, and feeds our HDTV. Until it is easy to rip Blu Ray, were not buying.

  11. Terry, I have lots of respect for you in other areas but this articles have lots of flaws:
    – why did you quote just Sony? There are other brands that is hovering right at that level. The format is not about Sony and Sony is regarded as a premium brand name and therefore are more expensive on most things.
    – if you look at the curve of adoption, blu-ray is at a much faster pace than DVD.
    – forget about the MSRP for movies, if you look at actual sale prices of movies, I often find sales where blu-rays are actually cheaper than the DVD version.
    – Renting / streaming is always an option to try a movie out before making purchase. Studios are not going make streaming close to free and hence rental expires. If anything, video rental the way Blockbuster is currently doing it with an actual store will quickly die off much more quickly and will be replaced by streaming – the overhead of floor space, employee, physical storage, etc.

    1. mtl
      – why Sony, because that’s what I buy (yes, I’ve tried other players like LG, but there were several issues). True, there are cheaper players on the market, but very few under $120 and again the magic price is $99 or less. We’ll see how this plays out this holiday season.
      – I did look at the curve:http://formatwarcentral.com/2009/10/05/blu-ray-adoption-ahead-dvd/
      While Blu-ray adoption is slated to outpace DVD, “Futuresource claims Blu-ray when compared to DVD will never reach the standalone player adoption rate DVD has.”
      – The DVD vs. Blu-ray disc comparison was that of a hot upcoming title on Amazon. A source not known for selling at full-retail MSRP very often. While you may be able to find some Blu-rays going for less than their DVD counter part, the average price of most titles is MORE, not less.
      – The point about renting titles is a moot point. Netflix now charges MORE to rent Blu-rays than DVDs. Agreed – Blockbuster’s brick and mortar business is very dead and that’s why they are moving to a streaming model!

  12. After researching the $200 cost of a Sony blu-ray player, I just purchased a 120GB Playstation 3 slim for $299. I must say the blu-ray movies are beautiful! And the up conversion on DVD movies causes them to look much better too. Even the surround sound with fiber optic audio (my receiver does not have HDMI) sounds great. My kids are thrilled. It is not compatible with PS2 games however. So for an extra $100 you get the PS3 with an excellent blu-ray player. Now I have to wonder if Apple isn’t using blu-ray because the streamed iTunes movies do not look this good? I still don’t like the cost of purchasing or renting blu-ray, but visually I really can really see a difference. I also think it shows the capabilities of a HDTV better than Dishnetwork HD channels which I believe are compressed. Terry, you probably understand or can explain what I am seeing better from a technical perspective. Would a HDMI receiver really sound better than the fiber optic audio? I bought a HDMI switch as my HDTV only has 1 HDMI input. It switches from DishNetwork to blu-ray automatically and both use fiber optic audio. As DN HDMI supports video only…for whatever reason.

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